CA Dependence on Foreign Oil

State energy policies are forcing Californians to rely more and more on costly foreign oil and refined fuel to meet our needs. Relying on imports exposes our state to global supply risks and market volatility and increases global emissions as supplies are delivered by tanker from unstable foreign countries.

Growing Reliance on Foreign Oil Risks Our Energy Supply

Because California is an energy island with no pipelines to import crude oil from the lower 48 states, policies shutting down local oil production force the state to increasingly rely on foreign oil imports to meet its energy needs. [1]

Foreign Oil Dependence Chart

NO PIPELINE INFRASTRUCTURE

California now imports more than 75% of the oil we use each day by tanker, sending $25 billion each year overseas [2], largely to foreign producers that do not share our environmental, labor, human rights, and safety standards.[3]

California’s energy supply is more vulnerable to geopolitical conflicts because of our state’s heavy reliance on imports from foreign countries, many of which are unstable, for our energy.[4]

California energy policies are the main driver for refineries going out of business

California’s policies are the main driver for our state’s badly needed fuel refineries shutting down. Refinery operators are facing mounting regulations and declining profitability, leading many to redirect capital to more profitable operations elsewhere. In fact, California has seen a massive decrease in fuel refining capacity over the past several decades, from 40 refineries down to just 9 as of 2025. By April 2026, California will have only 7 refineries remaining. [5]

California requires a unique, cleaner burning fuel blend called CARBOB gasoline - which has historically been refined in-state. But by midyear 2026, California’s in-state refining capacity is set to decline more than 30% from 2019 levels. This will reduce our in-state fuel supply by nearly 20%. [6]

With a growing imbalance between supply and demand, and fewer refineries in the state, California will now be forced to import foreign refined fuel to make up for the loss. That could mean huge price spikes for consumers.

Shutting Down What We Still Need

Despite the ongoing need for it, state and local policies are doing irreparable harm to our current energy system. According to the Federal Energy Information Administration, “all of these supply chain issues mean that California gasoline prices are more volatile and subject to large spikes.” One 2025 study by USC Professor, Michael Mische, suggests prices could increase to as much as $8.43 per gallon.[7]

“All of these supply chain issues mean that California gasoline prices are more volatile and subject to large spikes.”

- Federal Energy Information Administration
Upstream
Downstream
As California’s refining capacities decline, the state is forced to import more refined products. According to the Energy Commission, refiners or blenders who can produce the state’s unique fuel blend are “limited” and importing refined products “could be very expensive.” [8] Due to declining in-state crude production, intra-state crude oil pipelines to refineries are approaching the minimum throughput volumes required to operate safely. Without these pipelines, additional refineries could become inoperable. [9] California regularly does not have enough refining capacity to meet fuel demands, increasing the risk of recurring supply shortfalls and price spikes. [10] Storage & Pipelines Refinery Gas Station Port Imports: Foreign Crude & Refined Products In-State Crude Production
Gas Station Refinery California regularly does not have enough refining capacity to meet fuel demands, increasing the risk of recurring supply shortfalls and price spikes. [10] DOWNSTREAM Storage & Pipelines Due to declining in-state crude production, intra- state crude oil pipelines to refineries are approaching the minimum throughput volumes required to operate safely. Without these pipelines, additional refineries could become inoperable. [9] MIDSTREAM Port Imports: Foreign Crude & Refined Products In-State Crude Production As California’s refining capacities decline, the state is forced to import more refined products. According to the Energy Commission, refiners or blenders who can produce the state’s unique fuel blend are “limited” and importing refined products “could be very expensive.” [8] UPSTREAM

Sources:

  1. Information about California’s isolated fuel markets can be found in: Independent Institute, “Pain at the Pump: Blame Politicians, Not Producers, for High California Gasoline Prices” March 2024; U.S. Energy Information Administration, “West Coast Transportation Fuels Markets” September 2015; Stillwater Associates, “West Coast Crude Oil Supply” November 2018.
  2. $25 billion is a Capitol Matrix Consulting estimate calculated using U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Europe Brent Spot Price FOB” average of $69.70 per barrel for the first 11 months of 2025 and the 392 million barrels of imported crude from 2024.
  3. Foreign Sources of Crude Oil Imports to California, California Energy Commission, April 2022; “Crude Oil Production”, US Energy Information Administration; “Oil Imports by Rail, 2021”, California Energy Commission
  4. Foreign Sources of Crude Oil Imports to California, California Energy Commission, April 2022
  5. See: California Energy Commission, “California’s Oil Refineries” and “California Oil Refinery History”; California Energy Commission, “Transportation Fuels Assessment: Policy Options for a Reliable Supply of Affordable and Safe Transportation Fuels in California” August 2024, states: “While no state is immune to the broader challenges of crude oil price instability, California faces fuel price instability even when the crude oil markets are stable. Gasoline price stability in the state is closely tied to the available refining capacity, which is highly sensitive to planned and unplanned refinery shutdowns … When an unexpected refinery shutdown occurs in California, refiners have limited options to resupply quickly, especially with gasoline.” Before the Phillips 66 Wilmington refinery closure was announced, a Chevron executive told Politico in October 2024: “We are about a half a refinery short in California today. In the past there was always one or two extra refineries. When somebody had trouble, there was capacity in the system to avoid the volatility. Now there’s no extra capacity. If we have a problem, the market moves quickly because we’re out trying to buy, and there’s nobody to buy from. We have to go to Korea, maybe Europe, maybe somewhere else. It’s supply and demand.”
  6. SFGATE, “Bay Area refinery closure could be ‘huge blow’ for Calif. drivers” 21 April 2025, reported: “‘Between [Phillips 66 Wilmington and Valero Benicia], they produce almost 20% of California’s gasoline, which is a huge blow,’ Borenstein said. ‘That means you have to bring in gasoline from all over the world, and that means you have to have port facilities, and you have to have pipelines, you have to have places to store it, and California is not prepared on those fronts.’”
  7. ENSURING CALIFORNIA’S GASOLINE SECURITY FOR THE 21ST CENTURY by MICHAEL A. MISCHE University of Southern California Marshall School of Business May 5, 2025. “Based on current demand and consumption assumptions and estimates, the combined consequences of the 2025 Phillips 66 refinery closure and the April 2026 Valero refinery closure, together with the potential impact of legislative actions such as, but not limited to, the new LCFS standard, increase in excise taxes, Cap and Trade, SBX1-2, and ABX2-1, the estimated average consumer price of regular gasoline could potentially increase by as much as 75% from the April 23, 2025, price of $4.816 to $7.348 to $8.435 a gallon by calendar year end 2026.”
  8. See “Import Strategies” discussed on pages 68-69 in California Energy Commission, “Transportation Fuels Assessment: Policy Options for a Reliable Supply of Affordable and Safe Transportation Fuels in California” August 2024.
  9. Turner, Mason & Company Comments on SB X1-2, “Transportation Energy Supply Chain Infrastructure and Investment Study (TESCII)” September 2024; Bloomberg, “California’s Biggest Inland Oil Pipe On Course to Shut, Imperiling Shipments to Bay Area Refiners” 10 September 2025.
  10. See: California Energy Commission, “California’s Oil Refineries” and “California Oil Refinery History”; California Energy Commission, “Transportation Fuels Assessment: Policy Options for a Reliable Supply of Affordable and Safe Transportation Fuels in California” August 2024, states: “While no state is immune to the broader challenges of crude oil price instability, California faces fuel price instability even when the crude oil markets are stable. Gasoline price stability in the state is closely tied to the available refining capacity, which is highly sensitive to planned and unplanned refinery shutdowns … When an unexpected refinery shutdown occurs in California, refiners have limited options to resupply quickly, especially with gasoline.” Before the Phillips 66 Wilmington refinery closure was announced, a Chevron executive told Politico in October 2024: “We are about a half a refinery short in California today. In the past there was always one or two extra refineries. When somebody had trouble, there was capacity in the system to avoid the volatility. Now there’s no extra capacity. If we have a problem, the market moves quickly because we’re out trying to buy, and there’s nobody to buy from. We have to go to Korea, maybe Europe, maybe somewhere else. It’s supply and demand.”